CHANGING THE PARADIGM OF MODELING AND FORECASTING SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

Modern socio-economic systems demonstrate instability, chaos, and unpredictability. What methodology should be used to modeling modern systems? Constant changes crises in the development of require new approaches research these systems. The feature approach study conditions is conversion from a linear nonlinear paradigm. models are differential equations. Nonlinear equations different modes functioning complex can have several qualitatively solutions. This explains existence ways evolution Nonlinearity fundamental position paradigm cognition development. general law nature means, first all, non-observance principle superposition. whole cannot sum its parts; result efforts, quality not determined by qualities parts, reaction system proportional influence. For phenomena, knowledge about behavior part an object does yet guarantee correct ideas as whole, response may depend on magnitude changes. Non-linearity multivariance evolutionary paths, presence choice alternative paths determining rate evolution. irreversibility processes; nonlinear, indirect dependence processes external influences. article examines topical issue changing forecasting necessity transition economic theoretically substantiated. features application methods dynamics considered. phenomenon nonlinearity studied.